Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Wednesday 21 October, 11:45

Final score

Lille2-4Galatasaray

The model gave this result 28%. Its most likely result was a Lille win (49%).

Lille vs Galatasaray

  1. Lille49%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Galatasaray28%

1.49 expected goals for Lille

1.10 expected goals for Galatasaray

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Lille has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Galatasaray win at 28%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.0 for Lille and 4.3 for Galatasaray

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Lille and 2.2 for Galatasaray

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

27.2 expected

16.4 for Lille and 10.7 for Galatasaray

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

25.7 expected

13.0 for Lille and 12.7 for Galatasaray

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls71%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls57%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.