Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool

  1. Fenerbahçe25%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Liverpool55%

1.05 expected goals for Fenerbahçe

1.92 expected goals for Liverpool

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Liverpool the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Liverpool attack, which scores 150% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Liverpool defence, which lets in 55% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Fenerbahçe

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Fenerbahçe attack+54%
  3. Liverpool defence−55%

Expected goals1.05

Liverpool

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Liverpool attack+150%
  2. Fenerbahçe defence−44%

Expected goals1.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.9 for Fenerbahçe and 5.0 for Liverpool

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.1 for Fenerbahçe and 2.0 for Liverpool

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

28.2 expected

13.8 for Fenerbahçe and 14.4 for Liverpool

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

22.7 expected

10.6 for Fenerbahçe and 12.1 for Liverpool

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.