Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis

  1. Borussia Dortmund52%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Real Betis26%

1.68 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund

1.16 expected goals for Real Betis

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Borussia Dortmund has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Real Betis win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Borussia Dortmund defence, which lets in 59% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Real Betis attack, which scores 109% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Borussia Dortmund

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Borussia Dortmund attack+109%
  3. Real Betis defence−47%

Expected goals1.68

Real Betis

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Real Betis attack+109%
  2. Borussia Dortmund defence−59%

Expected goals1.16

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.8 for Borussia Dortmund and 4.0 for Real Betis

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Borussia Dortmund and 2.4 for Real Betis

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

26.2 expected

14.4 for Borussia Dortmund and 11.8 for Real Betis

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

21.9 expected

11.2 for Borussia Dortmund and 10.7 for Real Betis

  1. Over 20.5 fouls59%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls44%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls29%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.