Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Wednesday 21 October, 14:00

Final score

Real Betis1-0Feyenoord

The model's most likely result happened: a Real Betis win (45%).

Real Betis vs Feyenoord

  1. Real Betis45%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Feyenoord37%

2.25 expected goals for Real Betis

2.11 expected goals for Feyenoord

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Real Betis has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 18% and a Feyenoord win at 37%. It expects 4.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 71% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals71%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals63%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals44%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.2 for Real Betis and 4.5 for Feyenoord

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Real Betis and 2.3 for Feyenoord

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

29.0 expected

16.2 for Real Betis and 12.7 for Feyenoord

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

24.8 expected

12.5 for Real Betis and 12.3 for Feyenoord

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.