Wednesday 21 October, 14:00

Final score

Bayern München2-2Arsenal

The model gave this result 22%. Its most likely result was a Bayern München win (46%).

Bayern München vs Arsenal

Bayern München46%
Draw22%
Arsenal32%

1.62 expected goals for Bayern München

1.39 expected goals for Arsenal

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Bayern München has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Arsenal win at 32%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.2 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
Over 2.5 goals56%It happened
Over 3.5 goals35%It happened
Over 4.5 goals19%It did not happen

Both teams score54%
Bayern München or draw67%
Draw or Arsenal54%
No draw78%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.2 for Bayern München and 4.0 for Arsenal

Over 8.5 corners63%
Over 9.5 corners53%
Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Bayern München and 2.1 for Arsenal

Over 3.5 cards57%
Over 4.5 cards37%
Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

28.4 expected

19.1 for Bayern München and 9.3 for Arsenal

Over 20.5 shots85%
Over 22.5 shots76%
Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

21.9 expected

11.0 for Bayern München and 10.9 for Arsenal

Over 20.5 fouls59%
Over 22.5 fouls44%
Over 24.5 fouls29%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.