Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München

  1. Atletico Madrid27%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Bayern München55%

1.39 expected goals for Atletico Madrid

2.32 expected goals for Bayern München

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Bayern München the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bayern München attack, which scores 315% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Atletico Madrid defence, which lets in 59% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atletico Madrid

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atletico Madrid attack+111%
  3. Bayern München defence−56%

Expected goals1.39

Bayern München

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Bayern München attack+315%
  2. Atletico Madrid defence−59%

Expected goals2.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals64%
  4. Over 3.5 goals51%
  5. Over 4.5 goals31%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.5 for Atletico Madrid and 5.0 for Bayern München

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for Atletico Madrid and 2.2 for Bayern München

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

28.7 expected

15.1 for Atletico Madrid and 13.6 for Bayern München

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

20.9 expected

9.8 for Atletico Madrid and 11.2 for Bayern München

  1. Over 20.5 fouls52%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls36%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls23%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.