Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Rubio NU vs Sportivo Luqueno

  1. Rubio NU44%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Sportivo Luqueno29%

1.55 expected goals for Rubio NU

1.14 expected goals for Sportivo Luqueno

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Rubio NU has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Sportivo Luqueno win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rubio NU defence, which lets in 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rubio NU

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rubio NU attack+10%
  3. Sportivo Luqueno defence−7%

Expected goals1.55

Sportivo Luqueno

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sportivo Luqueno attack+8%
  2. Rubio NU defence−22%

Expected goals1.14

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.3 for Rubio NU and 5.1 for Sportivo Luqueno

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for Rubio NU and 2.5 for Sportivo Luqueno

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

29.5 expected

13.9 for Rubio NU and 15.6 for Sportivo Luqueno

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

24.1 expected

13.2 for Rubio NU and 10.9 for Sportivo Luqueno

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.