Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Olimpia vs Deportivo Recoleta

  1. Olimpia58%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Deportivo Recoleta19%

2.16 expected goals for Olimpia

1.02 expected goals for Deportivo Recoleta

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Olimpia the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Olimpia defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Olimpia attack, which scores 85% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Olimpia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Olimpia attack+85%
  3. Deportivo Recoleta defence−23%

Expected goals2.16

Deportivo Recoleta

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportivo Recoleta attack+39%
  2. Olimpia defence−46%

Expected goals1.02

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.8 for Olimpia and 4.4 for Deportivo Recoleta

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.8 for Olimpia and 2.5 for Deportivo Recoleta

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

32.3 expected

23.4 for Olimpia and 8.9 for Deportivo Recoleta

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots86%
  3. Over 24.5 shots79%

Fouls

24.4 expected

11.0 for Olimpia and 13.3 for Deportivo Recoleta

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.