Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Nacional Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  1. Nacional Asuncion68%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Club Sp. San Lorenzo10%

2.01 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion

0.49 expected goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Nacional Asuncion the clear favourite: 68% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Nacional Asuncion defence, which lets in 58% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Nacional Asuncion attack, which scores 52% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 42%. And about 11.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Nacional Asuncion

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Nacional Asuncion attack+52%
  3. Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence−13%

Expected goals2.01

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack−14%
  2. Nacional Asuncion defence−58%

Expected goals0.49

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.0 expected

5.8 for Nacional Asuncion and 5.2 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  1. Over 8.5 corners70%
  2. Over 9.5 corners61%
  3. Over 10.5 corners51%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.8 for Nacional Asuncion and 2.7 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

29.9 expected

17.9 for Nacional Asuncion and 11.9 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

22.7 expected

11.1 for Nacional Asuncion and 11.6 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.