Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Sportivo Ameliano vs Club Guarani

  1. Sportivo Ameliano30%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Club Guarani40%

0.94 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano

1.15 expected goals for Club Guarani

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Club Guarani has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Sportivo Ameliano win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Club Guarani defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Sportivo Ameliano defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sportivo Ameliano

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sportivo Ameliano attack+16%
  3. Club Guarani defence−46%

Expected goals0.94

Club Guarani

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Club Guarani attack+18%
  2. Sportivo Ameliano defence−28%

Expected goals1.15

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals62%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.2 for Sportivo Ameliano and 4.8 for Club Guarani

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Sportivo Ameliano and 2.4 for Club Guarani

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

26.3 expected

13.6 for Sportivo Ameliano and 12.7 for Club Guarani

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

22.8 expected

11.1 for Sportivo Ameliano and 11.7 for Club Guarani

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.