Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Sportivo Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion

  1. Sportivo Luqueno17%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Nacional Asuncion58%

0.71 expected goals for Sportivo Luqueno

1.77 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Nacional Asuncion the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Nacional Asuncion defence, which lets in 57% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Nacional Asuncion attack, which scores 46% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 11.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sportivo Luqueno

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sportivo Luqueno attack+10%
  3. Nacional Asuncion defence−57%

Expected goals0.71

Nacional Asuncion

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Nacional Asuncion attack+46%
  2. Sportivo Luqueno defence−11%

Expected goals1.77

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.6 expected

6.7 for Sportivo Luqueno and 4.9 for Nacional Asuncion

  1. Over 8.5 corners75%
  2. Over 9.5 corners66%
  3. Over 10.5 corners57%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Sportivo Luqueno and 2.2 for Nacional Asuncion

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

30.6 expected

18.7 for Sportivo Luqueno and 11.9 for Nacional Asuncion

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots76%

Fouls

22.5 expected

10.4 for Sportivo Luqueno and 12.1 for Nacional Asuncion

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.