Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion

  1. Club Sp. San Lorenzo19%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Libertad Asuncion55%

0.78 expected goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.70 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Libertad Asuncion the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Libertad Asuncion defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Libertad Asuncion attack, which scores 39% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack−17%
  3. Libertad Asuncion defence−38%

Expected goals0.78

Libertad Asuncion

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Libertad Asuncion attack+39%
  2. Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence−10%

Expected goals1.70

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.6 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 4.5 for Libertad Asuncion

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.5 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 2.3 for Libertad Asuncion

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

27.7 expected

13.9 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 13.7 for Libertad Asuncion

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

23.0 expected

11.8 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 11.2 for Libertad Asuncion

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.