Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Club Guarani vs 2 de Mayo

  1. Club Guarani44%
  2. Draw30%
  3. 2 de Mayo26%

1.28 expected goals for Club Guarani

0.84 expected goals for 2 de Mayo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Club Guarani has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a 2 de Mayo win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Club Guarani defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the 2 de Mayo defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Club Guarani

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Club Guarani attack+19%
  3. 2 de Mayo defence−29%

Expected goals1.28

2 de Mayo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. 2 de Mayo attack+11%
  2. Club Guarani defence−44%

Expected goals0.84

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.1 for Club Guarani and 4.4 for 2 de Mayo

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.6 for Club Guarani and 2.5 for 2 de Mayo

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

26.8 expected

15.6 for Club Guarani and 11.2 for 2 de Mayo

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

23.6 expected

11.8 for Club Guarani and 11.9 for 2 de Mayo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls57%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls42%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.