Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia

  1. Cerro Porteno35%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Olimpia36%

1.23 expected goals for Cerro Porteno

1.23 expected goals for Olimpia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cerro Porteno defence, which lets in 50% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Olimpia attack, which scores 80% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cerro Porteno

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cerro Porteno attack+45%
  3. Olimpia defence−44%

Expected goals1.23

Olimpia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Olimpia attack+80%
  2. Cerro Porteno defence−50%

Expected goals1.23

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.3 for Cerro Porteno and 4.2 for Olimpia

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.4 for Cerro Porteno and 2.7 for Olimpia

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

28.5 expected

13.1 for Cerro Porteno and 15.4 for Olimpia

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

24.2 expected

11.7 for Cerro Porteno and 12.5 for Olimpia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.