Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Thursday 29 October, 16:00

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno

  1. Club Sp. San Lorenzo17%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Cerro Porteno56%

0.61 expected goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.60 expected goals for Cerro Porteno

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack−18%
  3. Cerro Porteno defence−50%

Expected goals0.61

Cerro Porteno

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cerro Porteno attack+38%
  2. Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence−15%

Expected goals1.60

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals65%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.5 expected

5.3 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 6.3 for Cerro Porteno

  1. Over 8.5 corners74%
  2. Over 9.5 corners65%
  3. Over 10.5 corners56%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.0 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 2.1 for Cerro Porteno

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

28.9 expected

14.5 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 14.4 for Cerro Porteno

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

22.5 expected

11.8 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 10.7 for Cerro Porteno

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.