Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Thursday 29 October, 16:00

2 de Mayo vs Deportivo Recoleta

  1. 2 de Mayo39%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Deportivo Recoleta33%

1.48 expected goals for 2 de Mayo

1.28 expected goals for Deportivo Recoleta

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

2 de Mayo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. 2 de Mayo attack+12%
  3. Deportivo Recoleta defence−13%

Expected goals1.48

Deportivo Recoleta

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportivo Recoleta attack+31%
  2. 2 de Mayo defence−28%

Expected goals1.28

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.5 expected

5.7 for 2 de Mayo and 5.8 for Deportivo Recoleta

  1. Over 8.5 corners74%
  2. Over 9.5 corners65%
  3. Over 10.5 corners56%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.7 for 2 de Mayo and 2.2 for Deportivo Recoleta

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

27.3 expected

15.3 for 2 de Mayo and 12.0 for Deportivo Recoleta

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

22.9 expected

10.8 for 2 de Mayo and 12.2 for Deportivo Recoleta

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.