Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Wednesday 21 October, 15:00

Final score

Cerro Porteno2-2Sportivo Ameliano

The model gave this result 31%. Its most likely result was a Cerro Porteno win (46%).

Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano

  1. Cerro Porteno46%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Sportivo Ameliano23%

1.27 expected goals for Cerro Porteno

0.72 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Cerro Porteno has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Sportivo Ameliano win at 23%. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 11.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals60%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals14%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals5%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.3 expected

7.2 for Cerro Porteno and 4.1 for Sportivo Ameliano

  1. Over 8.5 corners73%
  2. Over 9.5 corners63%
  3. Over 10.5 corners54%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.7 for Cerro Porteno and 2.5 for Sportivo Ameliano

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

30.2 expected

18.4 for Cerro Porteno and 11.8 for Sportivo Ameliano

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

22.4 expected

10.2 for Cerro Porteno and 12.3 for Sportivo Ameliano

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.