Acatlan vs Real Refineros
- Acatlan56%
- Draw16%
- Real Refineros28%
2.81 expected goals for Acatlan
2.21 expected goals for Real Refineros
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Acatlan the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Acatlan defence, which lets in 55% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Real Refineros defence, which lets in 38% more goals than an average team. It expects 5.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 81% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Acatlan
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Acatlan attack+35%
- Real Refineros defence+38%
Expected goals2.81
Real Refineros
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Real Refineros attack+5%
- Acatlan defence+55%
Expected goals2.21
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals99%
- Over 1.5 goals96%
- Over 2.5 goals81%
- Over 3.5 goals74%
- Over 4.5 goals56%
- Both teams score56%
- Acatlan or draw72%
- Draw or Real Refineros44%
- No draw84%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.