Probably Football

Matches

Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico)

Héroes de Zaci vs Calor de San Pedro

  1. Héroes de Zaci51%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Calor de San Pedro28%

2.12 expected goals for Héroes de Zaci

1.75 expected goals for Calor de San Pedro

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Héroes de Zaci has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Calor de San Pedro win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Calor de San Pedro defence, which lets in 23% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Héroes de Zaci defence, which lets in 18% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Héroes de Zaci

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Héroes de Zaci attack+14%
  3. Calor de San Pedro defence+23%

Expected goals2.12

Calor de San Pedro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Calor de San Pedro attack+9%
  2. Héroes de Zaci defence+18%

Expected goals1.74

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals67%
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.