Probably Football

Matches

Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico)

Dragones de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Fresnillo

  1. Dragones de Oaxaca33%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Mineros de Fresnillo44%

1.37 expected goals for Dragones de Oaxaca

1.79 expected goals for Mineros de Fresnillo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Mineros de Fresnillo has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Dragones de Oaxaca win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Mineros de Fresnillo defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Mineros de Fresnillo attack, which scores 18% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Dragones de Oaxaca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Dragones de Oaxaca attack+14%
  3. Mineros de Fresnillo defence−20%

Expected goals1.37

Mineros de Fresnillo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Mineros de Fresnillo attack+18%
  2. Dragones de Oaxaca defence+12%

Expected goals1.79

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.