Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Svay Rieng vs Tampines Rovers

  1. Svay Rieng58%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Tampines Rovers24%

2.21 expected goals for Svay Rieng

1.46 expected goals for Tampines Rovers

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Svay Rieng the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tampines Rovers defence, which lets in 33% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 8.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Svay Rieng

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Svay Rieng attack+10%
  3. Tampines Rovers defence+33%

Expected goals2.21

Tampines Rovers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Tampines Rovers attack+5%
  2. Svay Rieng defence+2%

Expected goals1.46

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%
  4. Over 3.5 goals50%
  5. Over 4.5 goals31%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

5.3 for Svay Rieng and 3.6 for Tampines Rovers

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.6 for Svay Rieng and 2.2 for Tampines Rovers

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards52%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

31.1 expected

23.7 for Svay Rieng and 7.4 for Tampines Rovers

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

25.9 expected

15.9 for Svay Rieng and 10.0 for Tampines Rovers

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.