Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

BG Pathum United vs Wofoo Tai Po

  1. BG Pathum United45%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Wofoo Tai Po31%

1.62 expected goals for BG Pathum United

1.32 expected goals for Wofoo Tai Po

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

BG Pathum United has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Wofoo Tai Po win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Wofoo Tai Po attack, which scores 15% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Wofoo Tai Po defence, which lets in 17% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

BG Pathum United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. BG Pathum United attack−8%
  3. Wofoo Tai Po defence+17%

Expected goals1.62

Wofoo Tai Po

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Wofoo Tai Po attack−15%
  2. BG Pathum United defence+14%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.5 for BG Pathum United and 3.9 for Wofoo Tai Po

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.3 for BG Pathum United and 2.6 for Wofoo Tai Po

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

26.9 expected

18.1 for BG Pathum United and 8.8 for Wofoo Tai Po

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

24.0 expected

12.0 for BG Pathum United and 12.1 for Wofoo Tai Po

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.