AFC Champions League Two (International)
Kitchee vs Phnom Penh Crown
- Kitchee36%
- Draw24%
- Phnom Penh Crown40%
1.41 expected goals for Kitchee
1.50 expected goals for Phnom Penh Crown
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Phnom Penh Crown attack, which scores 22% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Kitchee
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Kitchee attack−11%
- Phnom Penh Crown defence+5%
Expected goals1.41
Phnom Penh Crown
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Phnom Penh Crown attack+22%
- Kitchee defence−10%
Expected goals1.50
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Over 3.5 goals33%
- Over 4.5 goals17%
- Both teams score54%
- Kitchee or draw60%
- Draw or Phnom Penh Crown64%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.1 expected
5.1 for Kitchee and 4.0 for Phnom Penh Crown
- Over 8.5 corners53%
- Over 9.5 corners43%
- Over 10.5 corners33%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.8 for Kitchee and 2.0 for Phnom Penh Crown
- Over 3.5 cards52%
- Over 4.5 cards32%
- Over 5.5 cards18%
Shots
27.0 expected
13.1 for Kitchee and 13.9 for Phnom Penh Crown
- Over 20.5 shots81%
- Over 22.5 shots72%
- Over 24.5 shots61%
Fouls
23.8 expected
13.0 for Kitchee and 10.8 for Phnom Penh Crown
- Over 20.5 fouls72%
- Over 22.5 fouls58%
- Over 24.5 fouls43%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.