AFC Champions League Two (International)
Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Nahda
- Al-Rayyan SC49%
- Draw23%
- Al-Nahda28%
1.76 expected goals for Al-Rayyan SC
1.32 expected goals for Al-Nahda
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Al-Rayyan SC has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Al-Nahda win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Rayyan SC attack, which scores 19% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.0 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Al-Rayyan SC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Al-Rayyan SC attack+19%
- Al-Nahda defence−2%
Expected goals1.76
Al-Nahda
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Al-Nahda attack+9%
- Al-Rayyan SC defence−11%
Expected goals1.32
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Over 3.5 goals37%
- Over 4.5 goals20%
- Both teams score54%
- Al-Rayyan SC or draw72%
- Draw or Al-Nahda51%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.0 expected
5.0 for Al-Rayyan SC and 4.1 for Al-Nahda
- Over 8.5 corners52%
- Over 9.5 corners41%
- Over 10.5 corners32%
Cards
3.6 expected
1.5 for Al-Rayyan SC and 2.1 for Al-Nahda
- Over 3.5 cards48%
- Over 4.5 cards29%
- Over 5.5 cards15%
Shots
24.5 expected
13.4 for Al-Rayyan SC and 11.1 for Al-Nahda
- Over 20.5 shots71%
- Over 22.5 shots60%
- Over 24.5 shots47%
Fouls
24.9 expected
12.8 for Al-Rayyan SC and 12.1 for Al-Nahda
- Over 20.5 fouls79%
- Over 22.5 fouls66%
- Over 24.5 fouls51%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.