AFC Champions League Two (International)
Al Kuwait vs Nasaf
- Al Kuwait42%
- Draw26%
- Nasaf32%
1.30 expected goals for Al Kuwait
1.12 expected goals for Nasaf
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Al Kuwait has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Nasaf win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Kuwait defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Nasaf defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 8.9 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Al Kuwait
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Al Kuwait attack+4%
- Nasaf defence−17%
Expected goals1.30
Nasaf
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Nasaf attack+1%
- Al Kuwait defence−19%
Expected goals1.12
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals70%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Over 3.5 goals23%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score54%
- Al Kuwait or draw68%
- Draw or Nasaf58%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.9 expected
5.1 for Al Kuwait and 3.8 for Nasaf
- Over 8.5 corners51%
- Over 9.5 corners40%
- Over 10.5 corners30%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.5 for Al Kuwait and 2.5 for Nasaf
- Over 3.5 cards58%
- Over 4.5 cards38%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
26.8 expected
15.7 for Al Kuwait and 11.1 for Nasaf
- Over 20.5 shots81%
- Over 22.5 shots71%
- Over 24.5 shots60%
Fouls
22.4 expected
9.3 for Al Kuwait and 13.2 for Nasaf
- Over 20.5 fouls63%
- Over 22.5 fouls48%
- Over 24.5 fouls33%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.