Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

FC Seoul vs Viettel

  1. FC Seoul49%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Viettel28%

1.70 expected goals for FC Seoul

1.26 expected goals for Viettel

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Seoul has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Viettel win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is playing at home, which adds 11% to the goals of FC Seoul. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Seoul

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Seoul attack+10%
  3. Viettel defence+2%

Expected goals1.70

Viettel

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Viettel attack−1%
  2. FC Seoul defence−7%

Expected goals1.26

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.5 for FC Seoul and 4.3 for Viettel

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.4 for FC Seoul and 2.2 for Viettel

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

25.0 expected

14.2 for FC Seoul and 10.8 for Viettel

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

28.6 expected

13.7 for FC Seoul and 14.9 for Viettel

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls85%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls75%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.