Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Thursday 29 October, 07:15

Wofoo Tai Po vs BG Pathum United

  1. Wofoo Tai Po38%
  2. Draw25%
  3. BG Pathum United37%

1.46 expected goals for Wofoo Tai Po

1.46 expected goals for BG Pathum United

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Wofoo Tai Po

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Wofoo Tai Po attack−15%
  3. BG Pathum United defence+14%

Expected goals1.46

BG Pathum United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. BG Pathum United attack−8%
  2. Wofoo Tai Po defence+17%

Expected goals1.46

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.8 for Wofoo Tai Po and 4.6 for BG Pathum United

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.2 for Wofoo Tai Po and 2.0 for BG Pathum United

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

25.4 expected

10.6 for Wofoo Tai Po and 14.8 for BG Pathum United

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

24.3 expected

12.0 for Wofoo Tai Po and 12.3 for BG Pathum United

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.