Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Thursday 29 October, 05:00

Tampines Rovers vs Svay Rieng

  1. Tampines Rovers42%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Svay Rieng36%

1.70 expected goals for Tampines Rovers

1.57 expected goals for Svay Rieng

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Tampines Rovers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Tampines Rovers attack+8%
  3. Svay Rieng defence+4%

Expected goals1.70

Svay Rieng

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Svay Rieng attack−3%
  2. Tampines Rovers defence+18%

Expected goals1.57

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.