Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Thursday 29 October, 05:00

Gangwon FC vs Kuching FA

  1. Gangwon FC40%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Kuching FA34%

1.25 expected goals for Gangwon FC

1.15 expected goals for Kuching FA

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Gangwon FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Gangwon FC attack−17%
  3. Kuching FA defence0%

Expected goals1.24

Kuching FA

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Kuching FA attack−3%
  2. Gangwon FC defence−13%

Expected goals1.15

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.