Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Thursday 29 October, 02:45

Adelaide United vs Home United

  1. Adelaide United33%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Home United42%

1.30 expected goals for Adelaide United

1.51 expected goals for Home United

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Adelaide United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Adelaide United attack+1%
  3. Home United defence−15%

Expected goals1.30

Home United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Home United attack+15%
  2. Adelaide United defence−3%

Expected goals1.51

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.