Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Pohang Steelers vs Gamba Osaka

  1. Pohang Steelers29%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Gamba Osaka45%

1.08 expected goals for Pohang Steelers

1.52 expected goals for Gamba Osaka

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Gamba Osaka has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Pohang Steelers win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Gamba Osaka defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Gamba Osaka attack, which scores 20% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 8.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Pohang Steelers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Pohang Steelers attack−12%
  3. Gamba Osaka defence−19%

Expected goals1.08

Gamba Osaka

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gamba Osaka attack+20%
  2. Pohang Steelers defence−8%

Expected goals1.52

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

5.1 for Pohang Steelers and 3.9 for Gamba Osaka

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Pohang Steelers and 2.1 for Gamba Osaka

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

24.1 expected

11.3 for Pohang Steelers and 12.8 for Gamba Osaka

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

24.6 expected

11.4 for Pohang Steelers and 13.2 for Gamba Osaka

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.