Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal

  1. Esteghlal FC44%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Al Shamal29%

1.37 expected goals for Esteghlal FC

1.12 expected goals for Al Shamal

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Esteghlal FC has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Al Shamal win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Esteghlal FC defence, which lets in 22% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al Shamal defence, which lets in 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Esteghlal FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Esteghlal FC attack+8%
  3. Al Shamal defence−16%

Expected goals1.37

Al Shamal

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Shamal attack+6%
  2. Esteghlal FC defence−22%

Expected goals1.12

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

4.9 for Esteghlal FC and 4.2 for Al Shamal

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Esteghlal FC and 2.1 for Al Shamal

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

21.9 expected

12.1 for Esteghlal FC and 9.8 for Al Shamal

  1. Over 20.5 shots57%
  2. Over 22.5 shots44%
  3. Over 24.5 shots32%

Fouls

20.0 expected

9.3 for Esteghlal FC and 10.7 for Al Shamal

  1. Over 20.5 fouls44%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls29%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls17%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.