AFC Champions League Elite (International)
Port FC vs Beijing Guoan
- Port FC34%
- Draw22%
- Beijing Guoan44%
1.49 expected goals for Port FC
1.82 expected goals for Beijing Guoan
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Beijing Guoan has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Port FC win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Port FC defence, which lets in 27% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.4 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Port FC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Port FC attack−11%
- Beijing Guoan defence+12%
Expected goals1.49
Beijing Guoan
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Beijing Guoan attack+6%
- Port FC defence+27%
Expected goals1.82
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Over 3.5 goals42%
- Over 4.5 goals24%
- Both teams score51%
- Port FC or draw56%
- Draw or Beijing Guoan66%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.4 expected
5.4 for Port FC and 4.0 for Beijing Guoan
- Over 8.5 corners56%
- Over 9.5 corners45%
- Over 10.5 corners35%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.6 for Port FC and 2.5 for Beijing Guoan
- Over 3.5 cards59%
- Over 4.5 cards39%
- Over 5.5 cards23%
Shots
24.4 expected
10.0 for Port FC and 14.5 for Beijing Guoan
- Over 20.5 shots70%
- Over 22.5 shots59%
- Over 24.5 shots47%
Fouls
22.6 expected
11.4 for Port FC and 11.2 for Beijing Guoan
- Over 20.5 fouls64%
- Over 22.5 fouls49%
- Over 24.5 fouls34%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.