Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Newcastle Jets vs SHANGHAI SIPG

  1. Newcastle Jets45%
  2. Draw21%
  3. SHANGHAI SIPG34%

1.83 expected goals for Newcastle Jets

1.64 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Newcastle Jets has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a SHANGHAI SIPG win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Newcastle Jets defence, which lets in 38% more goals than an average team. Next comes the SHANGHAI SIPG defence, which lets in 19% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Newcastle Jets

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Newcastle Jets attack+2%
  3. SHANGHAI SIPG defence+19%

Expected goals1.83

SHANGHAI SIPG

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. SHANGHAI SIPG attack−13%
  2. Newcastle Jets defence+38%

Expected goals1.64

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals46%
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

6.1 for Newcastle Jets and 3.9 for SHANGHAI SIPG

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.4 for Newcastle Jets and 2.2 for SHANGHAI SIPG

  1. Over 3.5 cards49%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

28.0 expected

13.9 for Newcastle Jets and 14.1 for SHANGHAI SIPG

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

21.9 expected

11.2 for Newcastle Jets and 10.6 for SHANGHAI SIPG

  1. Over 20.5 fouls59%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls43%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls29%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.