Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

  1. Al-Gharafa6%
  2. Draw7%
  3. Al-Qadisiyah FC87%

0.77 expected goals for Al-Gharafa

3.37 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al-Qadisiyah FC the clear favourite: 87% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Qadisiyah FC attack, which scores 145% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Qadisiyah FC defence, which lets in 49% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Gharafa

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Gharafa attack0%
  3. Al-Qadisiyah FC defence−49%

Expected goals0.77

Al-Qadisiyah FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Qadisiyah FC attack+145%
  2. Al-Gharafa defence+1%

Expected goals3.37

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals92%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals59%
  5. Over 4.5 goals40%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.2 for Al-Gharafa and 5.7 for Al-Qadisiyah FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners50%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.7 for Al-Gharafa and 2.2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

25.7 expected

11.7 for Al-Gharafa and 14.0 for Al-Qadisiyah FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

23.1 expected

10.6 for Al-Gharafa and 12.5 for Al-Qadisiyah FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.