Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Tractor Sazi vs Neftchi

  1. Tractor Sazi56%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Neftchi19%

1.60 expected goals for Tractor Sazi

0.86 expected goals for Neftchi

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Tractor Sazi the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tractor Sazi defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Tractor Sazi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Tractor Sazi attack+12%
  3. Neftchi defence−5%

Expected goals1.60

Neftchi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Neftchi attack−5%
  2. Tractor Sazi defence−33%

Expected goals0.86

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.1 for Tractor Sazi and 4.2 for Neftchi

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.5 for Tractor Sazi and 2.8 for Neftchi

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

25.7 expected

14.1 for Tractor Sazi and 11.6 for Neftchi

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

20.5 expected

8.6 for Tractor Sazi and 11.9 for Neftchi

  1. Over 20.5 fouls48%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls33%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls20%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.