Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Al-Wasl FC vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya

  1. Al-Wasl FC71%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Al Quwa Al Jawiya13%

2.28 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC

0.90 expected goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al-Wasl FC the clear favourite: 71% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Wasl FC attack, which scores 68% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Wasl FC defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Wasl FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Wasl FC attack+68%
  3. Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence−10%

Expected goals2.28

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack−12%
  2. Al-Wasl FC defence−25%

Expected goals0.90

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.9 for Al-Wasl FC and 3.5 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Al-Wasl FC and 2.1 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya

  1. Over 3.5 cards47%
  2. Over 4.5 cards28%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

26.2 expected

17.6 for Al-Wasl FC and 8.6 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

21.9 expected

10.6 for Al-Wasl FC and 11.3 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya

  1. Over 20.5 fouls60%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls44%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.