Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Al Sadd vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

  1. Al Sadd24%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Al-Ahli Jeddah58%

1.40 expected goals for Al Sadd

2.36 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al-Ahli Jeddah the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Ahli Jeddah attack, which scores 106% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Ahli Jeddah defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Sadd

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Sadd attack+51%
  3. Al-Ahli Jeddah defence−38%

Expected goals1.40

Al-Ahli Jeddah

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Ahli Jeddah attack+106%
  2. Al Sadd defence−16%

Expected goals2.36

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals52%
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.5 for Al Sadd and 4.2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Al Sadd and 2.1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

29.3 expected

14.9 for Al Sadd and 14.4 for Al-Ahli Jeddah

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

24.6 expected

13.1 for Al Sadd and 11.5 for Al-Ahli Jeddah

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.