Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr

  1. Pakhtakor13%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Al-Nassr69%

0.73 expected goals for Pakhtakor

2.11 expected goals for Al-Nassr

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al-Nassr the clear favourite: 69% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Nassr attack, which scores 126% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Nassr defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Pakhtakor

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Pakhtakor attack−10%
  3. Al-Nassr defence−46%

Expected goals0.73

Al-Nassr

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Nassr attack+126%
  2. Pakhtakor defence−31%

Expected goals2.11

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.0 for Pakhtakor and 4.8 for Al-Nassr

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Pakhtakor and 2.1 for Al-Nassr

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

25.3 expected

11.8 for Pakhtakor and 13.5 for Al-Nassr

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

24.7 expected

13.1 for Pakhtakor and 11.6 for Al-Nassr

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.