Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Wednesday 28 October, 05:00

Final score

Gamba Osaka1-1Buriram United

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Gamba Osaka win (51%).

Gamba Osaka vs Buriram United

  1. Gamba Osaka51%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Buriram United23%

1.50 expected goals for Gamba Osaka

0.99 expected goals for Buriram United

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Gamba Osaka has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Buriram United win at 23%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.3 for Gamba Osaka and 4.2 for Buriram United

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.6 for Gamba Osaka and 2.6 for Buriram United

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

24.4 expected

14.8 for Gamba Osaka and 9.6 for Buriram United

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots46%

Fouls

26.1 expected

13.1 for Gamba Osaka and 13.0 for Buriram United

  1. Over 20.5 fouls84%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls73%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls59%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.