Probably Football

Matches

FA WSL (England)

Charlton Athletic W vs Chelsea W

  1. Charlton Athletic W6%
  2. Draw10%
  3. Chelsea W84%

0.59 expected goals for Charlton Athletic W

2.95 expected goals for Chelsea W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Chelsea W the clear favourite: 84% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Chelsea W defence, which lets in 50% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Chelsea W attack, which scores 74% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Charlton Athletic W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Charlton Athletic W attack−21%
  3. Chelsea W defence−50%

Expected goals0.59

Chelsea W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Chelsea W attack+74%
  2. Charlton Athletic W defence+25%

Expected goals2.95

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.4 for Charlton Athletic W and 5.0 for Chelsea W

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.4 expected

1.3 for Charlton Athletic W and 2.1 for Chelsea W

  1. Over 3.5 cards43%
  2. Over 4.5 cards25%
  3. Over 5.5 cards12%

Shots

27.9 expected

8.1 for Charlton Athletic W and 19.8 for Chelsea W

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

19.4 expected

10.3 for Charlton Athletic W and 9.1 for Chelsea W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls39%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls25%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls14%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.