Probably Football

Matches

FA WSL (England)

Brighton W vs Crystal Palace W

  1. Brighton W74%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Crystal Palace W11%

2.65 expected goals for Brighton W

0.93 expected goals for Crystal Palace W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Brighton W the clear favourite: 74% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Crystal Palace W defence, which lets in 54% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Crystal Palace W attack, which scores 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Brighton W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Brighton W attack+14%
  3. Crystal Palace W defence+54%

Expected goals2.65

Crystal Palace W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Crystal Palace W attack−19%
  2. Brighton W defence−16%

Expected goals0.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals48%
  5. Over 4.5 goals29%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.5 for Brighton W and 4.5 for Crystal Palace W

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Brighton W and 2.3 for Crystal Palace W

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

26.5 expected

16.6 for Brighton W and 9.9 for Crystal Palace W

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

20.1 expected

9.4 for Brighton W and 10.7 for Crystal Palace W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls45%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls30%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls18%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.