Probably Football

Matches

FA WSL (England)

Birmingham City W vs Tottenham Hotspur W

  1. Birmingham City W18%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Tottenham Hotspur W64%

1.25 expected goals for Birmingham City W

2.39 expected goals for Tottenham Hotspur W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Tottenham Hotspur W the clear favourite: 64% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tottenham Hotspur W attack, which scores 50% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Birmingham City W attack, which scores 32% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 11.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Birmingham City W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Birmingham City W attack−32%
  3. Tottenham Hotspur W defence+22%

Expected goals1.25

Tottenham Hotspur W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Tottenham Hotspur W attack+50%
  2. Birmingham City W defence+17%

Expected goals2.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.0 expected

5.0 for Birmingham City W and 6.0 for Tottenham Hotspur W

  1. Over 8.5 corners70%
  2. Over 9.5 corners61%
  3. Over 10.5 corners51%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.2 for Birmingham City W and 2.3 for Tottenham Hotspur W

  1. Over 3.5 cards47%
  2. Over 4.5 cards28%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

32.5 expected

13.5 for Birmingham City W and 19.1 for Tottenham Hotspur W

  1. Over 20.5 shots94%
  2. Over 22.5 shots89%
  3. Over 24.5 shots82%

Fouls

21.4 expected

10.2 for Birmingham City W and 11.1 for Tottenham Hotspur W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls55%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls39%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.