Probably Football

Matches

FA WSL (England)

Saturday 31 October, 07:45

Everton W vs Manchester United W

  1. Everton W20%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Manchester United W55%

0.80 expected goals for Everton W

1.46 expected goals for Manchester United W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Manchester United W the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Manchester United W defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Everton W attack, which scores 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Everton W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Everton W attack−20%
  3. Manchester United W defence−34%

Expected goals0.80

Manchester United W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Manchester United W attack+16%
  2. Everton W defence−8%

Expected goals1.46

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.0 for Everton W and 4.3 for Manchester United W

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

3.4 expected

1.2 for Everton W and 2.2 for Manchester United W

  1. Over 3.5 cards45%
  2. Over 4.5 cards26%
  3. Over 5.5 cards13%

Shots

23.8 expected

11.3 for Everton W and 12.5 for Manchester United W

  1. Over 20.5 shots67%
  2. Over 22.5 shots55%
  3. Over 24.5 shots43%

Fouls

21.4 expected

11.1 for Everton W and 10.3 for Manchester United W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls56%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.