Probably Football

Matches

FA WSL (England)

Sunday 25 October, 08:00

Final score

Manchester United W1-1Manchester City W

The model gave this result 20%. Its most likely result was a Manchester City W win (58%).

Manchester United W vs Manchester City W

  1. Manchester United W22%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Manchester City W58%

1.19 expected goals for Manchester United W

2.01 expected goals for Manchester City W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Manchester City W the clear favourite: 58% to win. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.5 for Manchester United W and 4.7 for Manchester City W

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

3.4 expected

1.6 for Manchester United W and 1.9 for Manchester City W

  1. Over 3.5 cards45%
  2. Over 4.5 cards26%
  3. Over 5.5 cards13%

Shots

24.0 expected

11.6 for Manchester United W and 12.4 for Manchester City W

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

19.8 expected

9.7 for Manchester United W and 10.1 for Manchester City W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls42%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls27%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls16%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.