Probably Football

Matches

Division 1 (Saudi Arabia)

Al Zulfi vs Jeddah Club

  1. Al Zulfi59%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Jeddah Club13%

1.62 expected goals for Al Zulfi

0.60 expected goals for Jeddah Club

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al Zulfi the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Jeddah Club attack, which scores 39% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al Zulfi defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Zulfi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Zulfi attack−8%
  3. Jeddah Club defence+17%

Expected goals1.62

Jeddah Club

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Jeddah Club attack−39%
  2. Al Zulfi defence−28%

Expected goals0.60

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals66%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.