Probably Football

Matches

Division 1 (Saudi Arabia)

Al Zulfi vs Al Jandal

  1. Al Zulfi56%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Al Jandal16%

1.65 expected goals for Al Zulfi

0.76 expected goals for Al Jandal

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al Zulfi the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Zulfi defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al Jandal attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Zulfi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Zulfi attack−13%
  3. Al Jandal defence+25%

Expected goals1.65

Al Jandal

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Jandal attack−25%
  2. Al Zulfi defence−26%

Expected goals0.76

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.