Probably Football

Matches

Division 1 (Saudi Arabia)

Al Saqer vs Al Taee

  1. Al Saqer52%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Al Taee22%

1.90 expected goals for Al Saqer

1.15 expected goals for Al Taee

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Al Saqer has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Al Taee win at 22%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Taee defence, which lets in 43% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Saqer

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Saqer attack−12%
  3. Al Taee defence+43%

Expected goals1.90

Al Taee

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Taee attack−6%
  2. Al Saqer defence−10%

Expected goals1.15

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.