Probably Football

Matches

Division 1 (Saudi Arabia)

Hajer vs Al Ula

  1. Hajer3%
  2. Draw7%
  3. Al Ula90%

0.68 expected goals for Hajer

2.65 expected goals for Al Ula

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al Ula the clear favourite: 90% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Ula attack, which scores 66% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Al Ula defence, which lets in 36% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Hajer

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Hajer attack−30%
  3. Al Ula defence−36%

Expected goals0.68

Al Ula

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Ula attack+66%
  2. Hajer defence+17%

Expected goals2.65

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.