Probably Football

Matches

Division 1 (Saudi Arabia)

Al Orubah vs Al Anwar

  1. Al Orubah38%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Al Anwar31%

1.22 expected goals for Al Orubah

1.04 expected goals for Al Anwar

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Orubah defence, which lets in 21% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Orubah

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Orubah attack−9%
  3. Al Anwar defence−11%

Expected goals1.22

Al Anwar

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Anwar attack−3%
  2. Al Orubah defence−21%

Expected goals1.04

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.